The seventh seal (part 2)
October 6, 2010 § 3 Comments
In part 1, Twisted Blood looked at how reasonable it was to make conjectures about the title race based on the table after seven games. And we discovered: increasingly so. Here, in Part 2, we focus on the other end of the table.
So, Liverpool, eh?
From a historical perspective, their start this season – 18th in the table, P7 W1 D3 L3 – is their worst start since 1953/54, a season which saw the club relegated to the old Second Division. The general consensus is, of course, that they are too good to go down*; a quick glance at the markets sees them 13th favourites for the drop, available at a nevertheless-mirth-inducing 18/1. Besides, they’ve been bought, sort of, lawyers allowing, so everything will be fine. You never know, they might even scrape top half.
But can you draw a correlation between being in the bottom three after seven games and ending up there after 38? Acknowledging that being in the bottom three is never good, and keeping with the same sample group as in part 1 (the 29 seasons since 3-points-for-a-win was introduced in 1981/82): of the 88 teams that occupied the relegation zone after most teams in the division had played seven games, only 38 went on to subsequent relegation; that’s 43.18%, slightly closer to half than a third. Which should be comforting to Liverpool, Wolverhampton, and West Ham United; if the trend holds, one or two of them might expect to end the season still in the Premier League. « Read the rest of this entry »

